COP 28 – A turning point ?

Since COP3 and the implementation of the Kyoto Protocol, the long suit of the annual COP meetings has been more or less fruitful: COP 15 in Copenhagen saw China obstructing ambitious climate targets in 2009, while COP 21 led in 2015 to the Paris Agreement, the first universal climate agreement, aimed at limiting the increase in the global average temperature to +2°C compared to the pre-industrial era, and if possible to +1.5°C. Since then, successive COPs have sought to determine how to achieve these goals.

The 28th edition which took place in Dubai, United Arab Emirates, was the first one to present a global stocktake, beside of addressing mitigation, adaptation and climate finance topics.

Limited progress to date

The stocktake underscored the seriousness of the situation. The pace of warming due to human influence has intensified over the past decade – 2023 was the hottest year on record – as global greenhouse gas emissions continue to rise. The stocktake highlighted the need for a peak of global greenhouse gas emissions by 2025 and for their reduction by 43% by 2030 and by 60% by 2035, compared to 2019 levels, in order to limit global warming to 1.5°C. It noted that some countries are off track when it comes to meeting their Paris Agreement goals.

Parties agreed to submit their updated climate plans for 2035 by COP30 and that these should be aligned with the 1.5°C limit based on the best available science and the outcomes of the 2023 global stocktake.

An unexpected agreement

More remarkably, two hundred countries ultimately agreed on a transition away from fossil fuels. This is a significant step forward in the evolution of the climate agenda, since reducing the use of fossil fuels is an essential issue to limit the rise in temperatures. As pointed out by the UN Climate Change Executive Secretary Simon Stiell in his closing speech, the COP28 Agreement Signals “Beginning of the End” of the Fossil Fuel Era.

But while the unprecedented nature of the mention of fossil fuels is undoubtedly a considerable achievement, the COP 28 agreement has yet to be concretized through concrete implementation plans and a financing commensurate with the ambitions.

To date, the discrepancy between the stated objective of “keeping the 1.5°C target within reach” and the weakness of the concrete commitments put on the table remains significant. The commitments made by the various countries before the COP would allow, by 2030, a modest reduction in global greenhouse gas emissions, in the order of 2 to 5%, leading us to an estimated global warming of 2.1°C to 2.8°C by the end of the century.

Implementing the additional COP28 commitments to triple renewables and double the pace of energy efficiency improvements could further reduce global emissions by 10% by 2030, making it possible to limit warming to below 2°C, but far from 1.5°C.

However, the agreement being non-binding, the whole process relies solely on the goodwill of the states. They must now submit commitments (Nationally Determined Contributions) in line with the set targets and implement them at the national level.

Besides, many loopholes remain to be closed : the text does not precisely define the terms “low carbon” and “abatement”; it promotes “transitional” (fossil) fuels without reference to their net effect on emissions, and it equally considers carbon capture and storage on the one hand and the removal of atmospheric CO2 on the other, without weighting their limits, costs and risks.

It is therefore still too early to say whether COP 28 represents a turning point, especially since the thorny issue of financing mitigation and adaptation policies will only be acutely raised at the next COP, to be held in 2024 in Baku, Azerbaijan.

Climate finance shortfall

At this stage, the adoption of the Loss and Damage Compensation Fund, which was a key issue that remained unresolved at the end of the latest COP can be considered as a significant step towards climate justice for the poorest countries which are the least responsible for emissions, yet the ones suffering the full force of their consequences.

The announced amount remains however rather low in view of the challenges (less than a billion dollars) whereas countries in the South were asking for 100 billion per year, to equal the “Green Climate Fund” intended to finance the adaptation of the poorest countries, even if it is itself far from having achieved its objectives.

Agriculture and food systems in the spotlights

But the agreement on fossil fuels was not the only notable point of this conference. Consistently with the latest IPCC report, agriculture and food systems have been declared as key sectors for climate change mitigation and adaptation. Long neglected in climate negotiations, they are now increasingly in the spotlights, especially as they also involve issues of food security, health and poverty reduction in the vast majority of countries in the world.

These sectors were the subject of a declaration whereby 158 countries have pledged to include agriculture and food in their climate plans by 2025. A global and shared vision for a food systems transition has thus emerged. It will benefit from the financial support of IFAD, the World Bank and FAO to implement concrete actions: 120 in total, which concern in particular loss and waste, livestock, carbon sequestration and ecosystem restoration. It will have to be rolled out regionally at COP29 and then by national implementation from COP30.

This declaration is important and commendable; yet there is today little consensus on the pathway to get there. Some advocate to rely on technological approaches and avoid modifying existing production systems while others believe that technical innovations are necessary but not enough.
Considering the difficulty to reconcile the challenges of global change and food security at a time when 9.2% of the world’s population is undernourished [FAO] and agricultural systems are increasingly affected by the effects of global change, more holistic approaches need to be promoted in order to achieve the sustainability of food systems.

Whether COP 28 will be a turning point or not remains to be seen; what is certain is that the coming decade will be decisive.